South Florida’s Political trends
Bottom Line: In a recent story I demonstrated that South Florida isn’t majority Democrat as far as voter registration goes. In a separate story today, I’ve addressed surprise political outcomes in Florida and specifically South Florida for non-Democrats despite their historical strong advantage in South Florida. This as many people evaluate whether it’s possible for non-Democrats to run for and win many local elections in 2020. First, here’s the current voter registration breakout for South Florida’s tri-counties.
- Broward: 50% Democrat
- Miami-Dade: 42% Democrat
- Palm Beach: 42% Democrat
Now, here’s what the actual voter registration advantage is when contrasted with Republican registrations.
- Broward: D+29
- Miami-Dade: D+16
- Palm Beach: D+14
Currently Florida as a state is D+1.8 so you have a taste of how much further left, South Florida is compared to the rest of the state. On one hand you might look at those figures and think that it’s true that only Democrats could win elections. On the other hand, you might realize that any candidate who can effectively win over independents and Republicans has the potential to win if some Democrats aren’t happy with their candidates.
A lot has changed and continues to change. In South Florida, that change has generally been a move away from Democrat majorities resulting in a moderating political picture. As I pointed out in another story today, Reagan won Florida when it was a D+34 state by 17 points. Even deep blue Broward isn’t as avorable for Democrats as the whole of Florida was in 1980.