President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 53% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 44%)
- 56% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 45%)
President Trump is back to being the odds on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since last week.
- Biden: 27% (flat)
- Warren: 21% (-1)
- Sanders: 17% (flat)
- Buttigieg: 8% (+1)
- Harris: 5% (flat)
Not much movement this week. Just a point defecting from Warren to Buttigieg, but there are a few storylines playing out. Biden has been the clear front-runner for three straight weeks after Warren caught him. That coincides with the third straight week of declines for Warren after she was ganged up on in the most recent debate. No other candidate is polling above three percent behind Harris. Stay tuned...