2020 Update – Battlegrounds & reality with President Trump’s approval ratings
Bottom Line: Yesterday a slew of battleground polls rolled in comparing President Trump and 2020 Democrats from multiple pollsters. The news was generally good for President Trump as he’s competitive and most commonly leading in battlegrounds he won in 2016 including Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. What’s more is the first impression is that Nevada, a state he lost in 2016 but thinks he can win next year, is very much in play as he was shown to be tied or leading. But here’s the thing. Head to head opinion polls between sitting presidents and primary candidates have zero historical predictive ability. But to extent these polls tell a story, it’s this.
Most polling is done at the national level. Elections are won at the state level. As you’re aware it’s the Electoral College, not the national popular vote where elections are won. Just as President Trump easily won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote in 2016, we’re consistently seeing that he performs better in battleground states than he does in national polling. Here’s why. Populous states that are overwhelming disapproving weighing down his overall ratings.
Here are President Trump’s approval ratings in the three most populous blue states (using Morning Consult data):
- California: 34%
- New York: 37%
- Illinois: 37%
Those deep blue populous states along with locations like D.C. where Trump’s approval rating is only 21% have led to national opinion polls potentially looking worse than the Electoral College reality. In fact, as of now, President Trump is well positioned to perform at least as well as he did in 2016.