President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 52% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 44%)
- 69% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 49%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Biden: 29% (+1)
- Sanders: 18% (+2)
- Warren: 15% (flat)
- Buttigieg: 9% (-2)
- Bloomberg: 6% (+2)
This was set to be an interesting week for the Democrat’s race after the exodus of three candidates last week including Kamala Harris who had four points of support that needed to go somewhere. That somewhere seems to have been Bloomberg, Sanders and Biden. The Biden situation is interesting for a few reasons. He’s holding in with about the same level of support regardless of what he does these days. This was a week following a verbal dust up with a liberal in Iowa he called a damn liar and fat (along with challenging him to a push up contest to show him how sharp his mind still is – yes that happened). In some respects, it has its similarities to Trump in the 2016 cycle minus the passionate supporters. You get the feeling most of his support is based on Democrats not knowing where else to go. On that note one poll this week showed Hillary Clinton would lead all Democrats right now if she were in the race. That speaks volumes.
This will be the final update for 2019. By the next update, should President Trump be impeached, we’ll be facing a senate trial. That has significant implications for senators Sanders, Warren, Booker and Kolbuchar. They all would have to come off the trail for as long as the senate trial lasts. A Senate trial is required to take place six days per week until completed.