President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 51% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 44%)
- 66% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Biden: 29% (+1)
- Sanders: 20% (+1)
- Warren: 15% (flat)
- Buttigieg: 8% (flat)
- Bloomberg: 6% (+1)
As we close in on actual votes being cast, the picture isn’t becoming any clearer. On one hand Joe Biden has been the front-runner from the onset of the cycle. On the other hand, his advantage is as small as it’s been during the cycle. Additionally, Bernie Sanders has now tied his high-water mark and might be starting to peak at the right time. Otherwise everything behind them is relatively static and the biggest question is how big of a factor can Pete Buttigieg be in Iowa, which as a Mayor from Indiana is right up his ally, to try to create more national support for his campaign.