President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 51% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 44%)
- 72% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 51%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Biden: 27% (-2)
- Sanders: 19% (-1)
- Warren: 16% (+1)
- Buttigieg: 7% (-1)
- Bloomberg: 7% (+1)
But wait it’s gets weirder. That’s what came to mind when I look at what’s happening in this race. In the past week two additional candidates dropped out of the race. Marianne Williamson and Cory Booker. Granted they weren’t pulling much in polling, but it was still another 2% of support to go somewhere. Remarkably, the top five candidates in polling just over a couple of weeks before votes are cast in Iowa, managed to drop 2% of support this past week. That’s led by Biden’s decline. These numbers don’t factor in any potential impact from this week’s debate, though it’s unclear if there is anything in that debate that would have moved anyone towards of any of the candidates anyway. What we’re seeing play out at this point is indicative of a weak field of candidates. It’s highly unusual for the top tier contenders to drop support as weaker candidates drop out just as we’re closing in on elections (in fact I’ve never seen it). Biden’s support is the weakest it’s been in exactly a month and five candidates have dropped during that time. It’s not a strong showing for the front-runner to say the least. And about the weirdness... Nancy Pelosi has dropped the articles of impeachment off just in time for a trial to begin Tuesday. A trial that will take the top two challengers to Joe Biden off of the campaign trail until the Senate trial has been decided – which almost certainly will be after Iowa. Conspiracy? Coincidence? The time it took for her to get her custom impeachment pens? You decide.