President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 52% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 45%)
- 68% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Biden: 29% (+2)
- Sanders: 22% (+3)
- Warren: 15% (-1)
- Buttigieg: 8% (+1)
- Bloomberg: 8% (+1)
It’s taken awhile but we’re finally seeing the leading candidates begin to consolidate support from lessor candidates, along with benefiting from recent dropouts. The news is clearly best for Bernie as he’s gained the most over the past week and notably is now polling at his highest numbers since April of last year in the earliest days of the campaign. The same isn’t true for Biden. Biden, while still leading as he has the entire cycle, is a point lower than a month ago and well below his highs in the 40%+ range in May of last year. Leading is obviously better than not but the momentum candidate as we close in on Iowa appears to be Bernie. Meanwhile the one clear loser of the week is Elisabeth Warren. Every other top five candidate gained this week. Her dropping support, even if it’s just a little, could be problematic in her battle with Bernie over who the socialist of choice should be for Democrats. Meanwhile, don’t sleep on Bloomberg. He’s gone from zero to tied for 4th in this race quickly and he’s still on the rise supported by a massive media buy nationwide. Additionally, his current radio campaign is among the best I’ve ever heard, in my humble opinion. Will it be effective? He seems to be providing a clear alternative for the non-Socialist Democrat who has reservations about Joe Biden. All of this and we still haven’t touched on what isn’t happening for two of the top three candidates right now. Campaigning. Will Sanders, Warren and to a lesser extent Klobuchar being taken off the trail for the impeachment trail impact Iowa and beyond? To be continued...