2020 Florida voter registration by Party
Bottom Line: The state has been playing catch up with voter registration information. Just a week ago we received the first update for Florida’s voter registration rolls since October of last year. The state has now completely caught up with voter registration reporting information through the end of 2019.
My theme for the 2020 cycle has been perception vs reality. For example, the President of the United States has been impeached and the Senate trial is taking place right now. President Trump’s average approval rating is near the highest it’s been to date. If you listen to the cries of inequality and economic woes from leading Democrats,you’d not suspect the country is experiencing the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years with record low unemployment for minorities and record high wages for all Americans. You also wouldn’t suspect the average American’s personal net worth has never been higher. Here at home in Florida, we’re sitting on record low unemployment at 3% statewide and a remarkable record low of 2.2% in South Florida. I’m not sure why anyone would want to go in the opposite direction but there are no shortage of candidates running that way.
If you’re familiar with my work, you know that I have a saying...two sides to stories and one side to facts. Something I like tracking as information becomes available is voter registration information to the state. Following the trends has proven to be instructive in recent years – including understanding in part why pollsters were wrong about Florida in the 2016 and 2018 election cycles. Here’s where we stand in Florida entering the 2020 election cycle.
These are Florida voter registration changes by party year over year.
- DEM: +10,355
- GOP: +42,685
- Minor: +34,057
- NPA: +52,841
The change over the previous update was the loss of a few hundred registered Democrats as voter rolls were reconciled at year end. We now see Democrats with their smallest advantage in voter registration in Florida's history. In 1972, when Florida began keeping registered partisan records, 69% of all registered voters in Florida were Democrats.There's a clear picture confirming longer term trends in Florida. We’re seeing surges in NPA’s and minor parties with meaningful increases in Republican voter registration. The current breakout of registered voters looks like this...
- DEM: 36.8%
- GOP: 35.2%
- Minor: 1.1%
- NPA: 26.8%
Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016. That’s down to a 1.6% advantage currently. Historically, Florida’s Democrats haven’t reflected the most progressive wing of the party. The party’s continued leftward bend likely is impacting would be Democrats from registering in the party. TBC...