President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 52% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 45%)
- 72% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 50%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Biden: 28% (-1)
- Sanders: 24% (+2)
- Warren: 15% (flat)
- Bloomberg: 8% (flat)
- Buttigieg: 7% (-1)
So many storylines as we wrap up the last week of the cycle before actual votes are cast in Iowa. 1) Biden still leads, as he has the entire cycle, however his lead is the lowest it’s been at any point in this cycle and that’s because...2) The Bern is feeling it at just the right time. Up five points in the past two weeks – he's on a roll and has the highest support he’s had at any point in the cycle right now – when it’s about to count. The polls suggest he’s still slightly behind Biden, but the momentum feels like he’ll be the front-runner coming out of Iowa. 3) Elisabeth Warren is left in no man, or woman’s, land. She’s the clear number three in the race, but she’s lost support during January and most commonly competes for the same supporters as Bernie – which could be huge for Bernie later in the cycle/if when she drops out. 4) Good news/bad news for Bloomberg. The good news – he's performing the best he has to date. The bad news – it's nowhere close to the leaders. 5) Democrats flirted with Mayor Pete for a while, and his favor ability remains as high as any candidate, but he’s looking more like the candidate Democrats wanted to date but not marry.
And another note of consequence. The impeachment trial’s removing three candidates from the trail doesn’t seem to have had any meaningful impact to date. It all starts to get real from here. To be continued...