President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 55% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 46%)
- 72% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 50%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Biden: 27% (-1)
- Sanders: 22% (-2)
- Warren: 14% (-1%)
- Bloomberg: 11% (+3%)
- Buttigieg: 7% (flat)
Umm...WTF right? I mean, we still don’t have results from Iowa. Not recounts, and absentees. Just the actual results from Monday’s caucuses. Now, maybe it’s a coincidence that the DNC was found to have acted deceptively against Bernie Sanders and for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Maybe it’s a coincidence that those same corrupt officials were involved in the creation of the fraudulent Steel Doiser and the creation of the entire Trump –Russia collusion narrative. Maybe it’s a coincidence that the Clinton technology team are the ones behind the Iowa app that failed. Maybe it was also a coincidence that the Des Moines Register spiked its last poll due to “irregularities” for the first time ever. But – it'd all have to be a coincidence to not be something more.
As Joe Biden looks like he lost the fight to “fat” in Iowa, barely scraping the bottom of the barrel in fourth...as John Kerry contemplates jumping in the race, as Hillary Clinton doesn’t rule out a run if there’s a contested convention. This poop show is their reality. Never in my life, or in my historical analysis of presidential polling history, have I seen the top three candidates nationally all lose support a week into the actual voting process. Until now. The only winner this week – no matter what they decide happened Iowa – is Bloomberg as voters are realizing what the candidates are made of. Wow. To be continued...