2020 Update - New Hampshire Primary Preview & Pledged Delegates counts
Bottom Line: Who’d have thought that all New Hampshire would have to do is conduct a normal primary election to look good? After the Iowa Caucus Chaos that’s the case. We do finally have the official results in from Iowa, and will discuss those in a moment but first, here’s where an average of all current accredited polls in New Hampshire have the top five candidates:
- Sanders: 27%
- Buttigieg: 21%
- Biden: 13%
- Warren: 13%
- Klobuchar: 10%
In 2016 Bernie Sanders led the polls heading into New Hampshire and won the primary over Hillary. In 2008 Barrack Obama led in the polls heading into the primary, however Hillary Clinton won. In other words, polling results are a mixed bag in New Hampshire. Obama’s lead was nine points in the polls and Hillary won by three. That’s a big spread that suggests that either Sanders or Buttigieg will likely win in what appears to be another repeat of Iowa – minus the caucus chaos. As for what matters most in this race – pledged delegates, it’s a race to 1990. That’s the required number of pledged delegates required to clinch the nomination without a contested convention because 3,979 pledged delegates are available during the nomination process. Super delegates only come into play at a contested convention.
Here’s the scorecard after Iowa’s questionable caucus.
Pledged Delegates #needed to win % of remaining needed
Buttigieg: 13 1977 50.2
Sanders: 12 1978 50.2
Warren: 8 1982 50.3
Biden: 6 1984 50.4
Klobuchar: 1 1989 50.5
No other candidates won delegates in Iowa. And yes, Bernie Sanders did receive more votes in all counts – however in “delegate equivalents” it was Buttigieg edging out Sanders. The DNC would like you not to ask too many questions and just to move along... The first thing you might notice is that all candidates are trailing the pace needed to clinch without a contested convention in Iowa. The percentage over 50% means they all need to win more than half of all remaining pledged delegates in order to be able to win outright. There are 24 pledged delegates available in New Hampshire.