The anatomy of a swing state & what to watch this primary season
Bottom Line: If you’re a long-time listener you’re likely familiar with one of my Presidential election year series. The anatomy of a swing state. Each cycle I analyze states that were decided by ten points or less in the previous presidential election cycle. These represent potential swing states that are potentially in play for both parties heading into each cycle. It’s a fluid number from cycle to cycle which reflects changes in the electorate overtime. In 2016 there were 17 “swing” states I studied as part of this series. If you’ve tracked my results over time you’ve seen the value of the analysis of this series as I was able to accurately identify the outcomes of 49 states in 2000, 49 in 2004, 48 in 2008, 49 in 2012 and 48 in 2016 – including the accurate depiction of Donald Trump winning the Electoral College and Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote. The reason I’m initiating the series now is due to what we’re already seeing in the primary season. Both Iowa and New Hampshire are swing states and the turnout in these two states – dramatically favoring President Trump – is a precursor for what to watch as we advance deeper into the election cycle.
President Trump won 30 states in 2016. These are all of the states that were decided by 10% or less:
- Arizona- Trump
- Colorado- Clinton
- Florida- Trump
- Georgia- Trump
- Iowa- Trump
- Maine- Clinton
- Michigan- Trump
- Minnesota- Clinton
- Nevada- Clinton
- New Hampshire- Clinton
- New Mexico- Clinton
- North Carolina- Trump
- Ohio- Trump
- Pennsylvania- Trump
- Virginia- Clinton
- Wisconsin- Trump
Sixteen states, one fewer than four years ago due to Indiana, a state won by Obama,which is now solidly in Trump territory. Seven of those states were won by Clinton in 2016 and nine by Trump. All of these states are in play in 2020 and it shows the view of the possible in a wave election for President Trump. In 2016 he won 30 states to 20 twenty for a 306 to 232 Electoral College victory. The upside for President Trump in this cycle would be 37 states a 356 to 182 Electoral College victory. Should the inverse analysis seem possible I’ll provide it. For now, momentum is solidly behind President Trump as I initiate this series for this cycle. It’ll be interesting to refer back to this story the day after the election to see where the conversation started.