President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 52% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 45%)
- 73% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 50%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Sanders: 24% (+2)
- Biden: 19% (-8)
- Bloomberg: 14% (+3%)
- Warren: 12% (-2%)
- Buttigieg: 11%(+4)
Make no mistake. The race is about delegates and the current delegate scorecard shows Buttigieg in the lead followed by Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar and Biden. Though no candidate is pacing enough delegates through the first two states to win the nomination prior to the convention. But here’s the next big odd thing to enter the conversation of the Democrat’s race this week. You can make the case based on national polling that the biggest winner hasn’t even been on a ballot yet. Bloomberg’s rise continues in national polling and with early voting underway in numerous states for the primary right now, including Florida. He’s doubled his support in two weeks and could be scoring big in ways that won’t be known until Super Tuesday.
Meanwhile Biden’s collapse in Iowa and New Hampshire is reflected nationally as well. Biden lost nearly a third of his national support this week, is trailing for the first time in national polling and is at the lowest polling point of this cycle. This very much looks like a death spiral that he’d better figure out in a hurry or risk not making it out of February.There’s now a pause in the action. The next election is the Nevada Caucus which takes place a week from Saturday. Expect some additional shaking out in the polls, including whether Amy Klobuchar’s results in New Hampshire are reflected with broader national support.To be continued...