Faith and politics in 2020
Bottom Line: If you’re generally politically engaged, you’re likely aware of a couple of generalities. Those who are most closely connected to their faith tend to vote for Republicans and those who aren’t Democrats. That remains the case again in 2020 but there are many additional levels of context to consider based on a new study just published in the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion. Consistent with recent research, 23% of adults in 2020 aren’t connected to any faith. By far the highest number on record (the lowest studied was 5% in the 1950’s). Here are the new takeaways about our society and the 2020 political landscape.
- Those who regularly practice their religion, are most likely to vote for Republicans
That’s nothing especially new. After all, it’s been twelve years since Barrack Obama lamented bitter clingers to God and guns on the campaign trail. Clearly you know he was aware of where his bread was buttered (along with insight into religion’s role in his life). Conversely, this remains true...
- Those who don’t regularly practice a religion are most likely to vote for Democrats
This also isn’t new information. But what comes next is a new wrinkle that helps explain a lot about the growing trend of “religious nones”.
- Those who aren’t connected to any faith but aren’t atheists or agnostics aren’t likely to have any political engagement
It’s like this. Those who specifically ID as non-believers are highly likely to vote for Democrats but those who are ambivalent about matters of faith are also mostly ambivalent about politics as well. These individuals are the least likely to vote. What this demonstrates in a political context, is that while Democrats are often playing to the growing politics of non-belief by virtue of policies that further isolate and eliminate faith from public settings - they’re not appearing to be growing their support beyond existing levels. This despite a growing trend of non-religious connection. In fact, the effort to do so risks alienating those in the religious political middle who are believers but infrequently practice their faith.
This information suggests matters of faith could remain key for Republicans in 2020, while Democrats risk losing potential swing voters by overplaying a faithless public-policy hand.