The Good, the Bad and the Coronavirus ugly
Bottom Line: Last week the question was whether the coronavirus outbreak had peaked. There seemed to be some optimism that the threat was contained and for the first time since the outbreak began,the death rate for closed cases had improved. Then this weekend happened and all of the optimism was knocked out the moment South Korea and Italy discovered a slew of new cases. Not only was the optimism gone– the fear of the lack of containment began to become palatable. So, let’s break down the coronavirus good, bad and ugly.
The good
Despite the new cases outside of containment zones, the overall death rate for those who’ve had the coronavirus continues to improve. There are all kinds of misleading death rate estimates out there because there aren’t being accounted for accurately. But here’s the real deal. Three weeks ago,when we first had solid “closed case” info, the death rate was 20%. This meant that one in five of every coronavirus patients died while four fully recovered.Last week the death rate had improved to 12%. Today,it’s down to 9%. This means more than nine in ten people who’ve obtained the coronavirus,and have seen the effects to completion,have recovered.That’s a three-week positive trend.
The bad
A 9% death rate is still huge any way you slice it. To give you an idea of how bad that death rate is... The death rate for the flu, which has killed a minimum of 10,000 Americans per year is 18,000 times lower than the current coronavirus death rate. In terms of mortality, getting the coronavirus once is the equivalent of getting the flu 18,000 times. Wrap your brain around that one for a minute.Clearly bad.
The ugly
What I just presented to you is arguably ugly enough but there is potentially another leg to this conservation. The what if factor. I mentioned the flu kills at least 10,000 Americans per year. Already the coronavirus has killed more than 2,600 people and there are currently an additional 11,500+ in critical condition right now with nearly 52,000 total active cases.We have 330 million Americans. Consider the downside risk if the coronavirus impacted in the US in a way that at all resembled the traditional flu. Actually don’t. You really don’t want to and that’s the point. The coronavirus remains the worst viral threat in modern science. We have nothing to compare it to. What’s more is if all the stars aligned a vaccine might be developed in about a year without anyway of knowing its effective rate. Not to mention, who’d like to be the test dummies for that one?
In Florida, still no cases have been diagnosed, though Florida health officials aren’t disclosing how many people have been tested due to privacy concerns. Let’s just hope it stays that way. Meanwhile, travel into China and most of Asia is almost impossible from South Florida as airlines have ceased travel to potentially dangerous areas in the region for at least the next month or two while they reevaluate.