2020’s Red wave in the making
Bottom Line: It’s a tale of two political stories to be sure. One's filled with a record economy, jobs, wages and opportunity. The other with a failed impeachment effort and a battle between socialism and socialist-lite for presidential party supremacy. In my first related story comparing the turnout results for Obama and Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire under like circumstances - we saw Trump’s turnout was 143% higher in states that on balance are more favorable to Democrats politically. That was the first sign with actual votes being cast in 2020. Here’s another potential tell for a coming red wave. It’s not just that President Trump has maintained his best in Gallup 49% approval rating for the second consecutive month – his net approval rating is positive for the first time in the survey and what lies beneath is even more telling. What people are saying about themselves hasn’t happened in many years...
In Gallup’s monthly survey work they always sample for how people identify politically. Not only do Republican identifiers now top Democrats – 32% to 27%… That’s the highest percentage of self-ID'd Republicans since 2014. And the five-point advantage over Democrats...that’s the biggest since 2005. Yes, fifteen years. To put those two years in perspective – The last time this many people ID’d as Republicans, they went on to win the 2014 midterm elections - beating Democrats by 5.7% at the polls. And the last time they had an ID advantage this large they’d just come off of sweeping the 2004 elections making gains in Congress and re-electing President Bush.
This is how data begins to come together to begin to paint a picture of something bigger in the making. To be continued...