President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 56% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 46%)
- 79% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 52%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Sanders: 29% (+1)
- Biden: 18% (flat)
- Bloomberg: 14% (-2%)
- Warren: 12% (flat)
- Buttigieg: 10% (flat)
There are three clear storylines and three clear contenders. #1. Bernie Sanders has won the most votes in each of the first three states, leads in delegates and is the clear front-runner in this race. #2. Joe Biden stopped his free fall this week. It’s no secret South Carolina is a must win in advance of Super Tuesday. His ability to stop the bleeding has given him a chance to do that and to put up a fighting chance and that’s because...#3. There’s only one candidate that any of these two recent debates have mattered to in the context of this race – Bloomberg.No one has benefited from a debate performance but it’s clear Bloomberg has been hurt by them. His failure to rise to the occasion to be the Sanders alternative has put the non-socialists on the left in an awkward position of potentially circling back to a weakened Biden. Something to remember on Super Tuesday...the early votes made prior to these two debates in states like ours. It’s likely Bloomberg already pulled early votes that aren’t reflected in his now weaker numbers. Stand by for the busiest week of the cycle...