Super Tuesday Setup

Super Tuesday Preview

Bottom Line: Today is the single biggest day of the primary cycle.Fourteen states and two territories have their say in the Presidential primary process. This includes the two largest states in the country,Texas and California, voting today. The Democrat’s road to the nomination is a delegate race to 1990 pledged Delegates. With Buttigieg and Klobuchar out, here’s who has what heading into today:

  • Sanders:60
  • Biden:54
  • Warren:8

There are 1,357 pledged delegates up for grabs today. That’s more than will be available in all remaining contests in March, including ours in Florida, combined. By the end of today 38% of all available delegates will be allocated in the Democrat’s race. So, what’s likely to happen? In an average of the most recent polling here’s the scorecard:

  • Sanders: 29%
  • Biden: 23%
  • Bloomberg: 16%

On the surface it would appear that Sanders is set for a significant win today. That may well happen but there’s this to consider. Biden is up 4% since South Carolina – showing some new momentum and Buttigieg + Klobuchar were averaging 14% in these states. If Biden can consolidate most of their supporters and build on his momentum from South Carolina, he has a chance today. Those are big if’s though. What I continue to watch is the percentage of the leader. If Biden has a strong showing today – it may well make a contested convention more likely. There’s no reason to believe Bernie would leave the race, nor that his supporters would leave him, even if Biden were to gain front-runner status. The other interesting dynamics are Bloomberg’s and Warren’s supporters. They both are potential foils to the front-runners. Bloomberg’s supporters are more likely to break for Biden if he weren’t in the race, while Warren’s are more likely to break for Bernie. It should be interesting... Until tomorrow.

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