President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 51% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 45%)
- 64% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate- though his outlook has dropped along with his approval rating on back of the coronavirus fears. Effectively managing this threat is clearly important not just as a matter of public and economic health, but also for his prospects this fall.
To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Current average polling with the changes since the previous update.
- Biden: 31% (+14)
- Sanders: 26% (-3)
What a difference a week made in this race. Gone are Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Warren. So too is the eleven-point polling lead Bernie Sanders had over Biden a week ago. The combination of Biden’s big win in South Carolina – along with successfully consolidating the support of Pete & Amy didn’t just lead Joe Biden to a Super Tuesday win...it’s completely changed the outlook in this race – in just a week.The question is now whether Elisabeth Warren’s exit from the race will be enough to propel Sanders back into a horse race with Biden. Next Tuesday is a near make or break day for Bernie as six states – Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington hold their primaries.