March 10th Presidential Primary Preview
Bottom Line: What a difference a week makes. Heading into Super Tuesday the question was whether Biden would have momentum after South Carolina and if the dropping out of Buttigieg and Klobuchar would significantly help Biden. A week later the question is whether Sanders can perform well enough today to prevent Biden from running away with this race. Super Tuesday was the biggest day of the cycle with fourteen states voting. Today we have six. Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington. For Democrats, there are a total of 332 pledged delegates available today. 1990 pledged delegates are required for a win without a contested convention. Here’s where the candidates stand coming into today:
- Biden: 667
- Sanders: 575
- Gabbard: 2
There are 1,407 pledged delegates that have already been allocated. Joe Biden’s current winning percentage is 47%. While he’s now the front-runner, he’s still not on pace to win the nomination without a contested convention. That takes me to the two storylines. Yes, who wins what today, but also how big are the wins? A loss is never good, but close losses by either candidate could prevent the other from gaining the needed delegate advantage to pace the needed pledged delegates.
So, what’s likely to happen? In an average of the most recent polling here’s the scorecard:
- Biden: 54%
- Sanders: 38%
- Gabbard: 2%
On the surface it would appear that Biden is set for a significant win today. His momentum from Super Tuesday has continued and based on polling, he’s successfully consolidated most of the support vacated by others dropping out of the race. Will Biden win big? Will it be big enough to get him on pace to win outright? It should be interesting... Until tomorrow.