Q&A of the Day – Coronavirus -The difference between Mortality & Death Rates
Each day I’ll feature a listener question that’s been submitted by one of these methods.
Email: brianmudd@iheartmedia.com
Twitter: @brianmuddradio
Facebook: Brian Mudd https://www.facebook.com/brian.mudd1
Today’s entries: 1) First of all, thank you for your exceptional radio show and for providing a (what I consider) centered opinion that I don’t have to roll my eyes about when I listen. This morning you repeatedly mentioned a 6% mortality rate for the coronavirus. I am unable to find anything anywhere near that high when I look for figures out there. Most jibe more closely with figures mentioned in https://time.com/5798168/coronavirus-mortality-rate/
2) You know Brian... Measles still kills about 100k a year. Would you just read that number and move on? Of course not, because in the US that’s not our reality. So, citing what happens in countries like China who Don’t care about their people is again-MISLEADING
Bottom Line: I chose these two today because they continue to reflect the mix of comments and questions I’m receiving and will help me illustrate important points you may have questions about as well. First, about mortality rates you might hear reported compared to the death rates I’m reporting. The mortality rates are estimates of what will happen. The death rate I’ve reported is based on what has happened. As we’ve seen, the virus isn’t spreading equitably. It’s disproportionally impacting older populations, especially in the United States. This is logical as far more seniors travel internationally compared to families with young children. This is likely why the real death rate is higher than all mortality rate estimates to date. As for how I’m calculating the death rate, which has been static at 6% for eleven consecutive days...here’s where it comes from...
As of this entry:
- 72,950 closed cases
- 68,314 recovered
- 4,636 died
That’s a death rate of 6.3%. I’ve rounded down to 6%. This leads me to address the second note. Where should I begin... I guess I could start by saying that the death rate in China, at 5% is lower than the rest of the world. Not what you were expecting, right? In Italy, which is second to China in total cases, has a current death rate of 44%. Would you prefer that I report that rate? Or what about what’s happening in the United States. Where we’ve had more deaths than recoveries? Would you rather I report a 72% death rate? My analytical, pragmatic approach is exactly why I’m not reporting those figures in lieu of the confirmed cases and confirmed outcomes worldwide. It’s still somewhat early in Italy and it is early in the United States. Your assumptions are incorrect, as assumptions often are. I’d prefer not to be reporting what I am either. There are two sides to stories and one side to facts. You don’t have to like them but your perception won’t change reality. It also won’t stop me from doing what I’ve been doing for over twenty years. Getting to the premise of the story, analyzing the facts and pragmatically delivering the truth wherever that takes us. It’s what makes me relevant and different than the rest of what you hear.