Coronavirus update - March 13th
Bottom Line: This daily update is designed to put everything in perspective with straight-forward facts. No hyperbole, no misinformation, no “bad math”. Here’s where we stand...
Thursday was the day the world around us changed as we knew it. From travel internationally to simply traveling to work. It’s all different now. So is entertainment. The last time sports leagues suspended activity to the degree they did yesterday was when the Greatest Generation put down the balls to pick up guns to save the world. That’s not an effort to be dramatic but as your humble analyst I observe things and report them to you. I found that to be a remarkable comparison. Thankfully our enemy aren’t the Axis powers, it’s a virus. Even harder to see than the Zeros, but theoretically far less threatening on balance with a much shorter timeline before we win this one.
There were 15 new cases of COVID - 19 diagnosed in Florida on Thursday. This included five in Broward and two in Palm Beach County. While most of the cases involved adults over 60, three of the cases involved people in their 20’s. As a reminder, according to the Task Force, those over the age of 60 are disproportionately impacted by COVID - 19. Officials stated that the symptoms are least severe with those who are youngest – with the effects being less severe than the common flu for children. This is different than most viruses which are most dangerous for those oldest and youngest. The task force also indicated the average age of death for someone due to the virus is 80.
Here’s where we now stand in Florida:
- 45 instate cases – 2 deaths – 0 recovered
Nationally:
- 1,762 cases – 41 deaths – 31 recovered
Worldwide:
- 134,918 – 4,989 deaths – 70,395 recovered
The United States remains 8th in the world in total cases. The most disconcerting aspect of the virus at this point remains the death/recovery rate based on closed cases. After sitting at 6% for eleven days - it’s now increased to 7%. We’re seeing the death rate rise as the reach of the virus grows. The common pattern with the virus spreading is an increase in death rates with vulnerable people early on followed by improving rates overtime as people begin to recover.
In the United States we’ve continued to experience more deaths than recoveries. To put this in perspective – let’s say every American obtained the H1N1 flu virus. Based on its average death rate it’d kill 165,000 Americans. If the COVID-19 virus maintained its current death rate and every American contracted it, 23.1 million Americans would die. Again, I’m not at all trying to bean alarmist. Those are just the facts. Hopefully we begin to see progress with the death rate and the end of winter which is just around the corner.