President Trump’s re-election odds & the state of the Democrat’s race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be re-elected. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. I’m able to track President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 48% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 44%)
- 67% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
This is just the second week of the cycle, going back to January of 2019, in which President Trump hasn’t been in a favored position to win regardless of sample. The virus has had a slight negative impact on him to date. You can clearly see the difference in sampling. There’s a vast difference in outlook based all samples compared to just likely voters. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Speaking of which here’s how their race looks this week.
Delegates needed to win: 1990.5
- Biden: 876
- Sanders: 726
Joe Biden is still the frontrunner gaining additional momentum after winning four, and potentially five,of the six contests on Tuesday. He’s still slightly off of the delegate pace needed to win the nomination outright prior to the convention. His current delegate pace would leave him 19 pledged delegates short of winning without a contested convention. Of course, that pacing could, and likely will, change next Tuesday in Florida as Biden’s a prohibitive favorite by a large margin.