Florida voter registration by party – April 2020
Bottom Line: The 2020 election cycle has taken a back seat to the pandemic over the past couple of months. Who would have thought anything would have been bigger than this Presidential election cycle coming into the year? It’s a reminder about how unpredictable life can be. While it’s unclear what the political landscape will look like coming out of the pandemic, we do know what changes have taken place with voter registration in Florida in the mist of it and the news is generally good for Democrats.
Based on the latest voter registration data from the state, gains have been made by minor parties and Republicans but the largest gains have come with new registered Democrats. This reverses two years of gains by Republicans and appears to be driven by two factors. The Presidential primary process provided more motivation for would-be Democrats than Republicans. Also, in the early going this year, we’ve seen a decline in NPA voters. It appears many NPA’s re-registered as Democrats to be able to participate in Florida’s primary. With Democrats having had a hotly contested process, while Republicans didn’t - it’s possible Republicans could bridge the gap before November but for now Democrats have added more than 55,000 voters than Republicans over a year ago.
These are Florida voter registration changes by party year over year.
- DEM: +126,248
- GOP: +70,880
- Minor: +4,629
- NPA: -10,824
This move by Democrats has broken the tide of consistent Republican gains since the 2016 cycle. What’s notable about the margin is that it’s wider than the margin of victory in 2018’s statewide elections for Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis. Now, not all registered Democrats or Republicans vote for all politicians of their political party, and the way NPA’s break often make or break Florida's close elections, but it’s a significant gain over a year ago for Democrats.
The current breakout of registered voters looks like this...
- DEM: 37.3%
- GOP: 35.2%
- Minor: 1.1%
- NPA: 26.4%
The longer-term trend is still favorable for Republicans due to gains made since the 2016 cycle. Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016 when Donald Trump won Florida.Democrat’s hold a 2.1%advantage currently. To be continued...