President Trump is well positioned for reelection
Bottom Line: One thing the pandemic has done is to throw all conventional political wisdom out the window. We’ve not been through a pandemic which has been this disruptive since 1918 as a country and we’ve never experienced one like this during a Presidential re-election year. One thing that’s been true and will remain true this cycle regardless...presidential re-election bids are mostly about the incumbent. With 65% of Presidents who run for re-election winning – there's an incumbency advantage and the challenger tends to only begin to matter as much as the President if people are dissatisfied with the incumbent. Recent opinion approval polling has been all over the map for President Trump. Recently he’s has some of the lowest approval polling from Rasmussen in over two years – around 44%, to Gallup where he’s tied a high in that poll of 49%. One thing that’s deceptive about approval polling generally – is that national polling isn’t nearly as relevant as state by state polling. Elections are won in the Electoral College of course and not by popular vote. With that in mind let’s take a look at Morning Consult’s breakout of President Trump’s approval polling in the individual states. Here’s where the President currently stands:
- Net positive approval rating in 26 states including Florida
- The 26 states represent 253 of the needed 270 Electoral College votes needed to win re-election
What this suggests is that currently Joe Biden, should he become the Democrat’s nominee, is only competitive in real-time in 24 states representing 285 Electoral College votes. In essence he’d have to win almost all states he’s currently competitive in to pull off a victory. Not only is that quite the uphill battle for Biden, it’s further complicated by the fact that Trump is only underwater by one point in Pennsylvania, which he won in 2016 and which carries with it 20 Electoral College votes. More than enough to carry the President across the finish line as of now. The election is months away and we’ve already seen how some major catalyst/event can change everyday life, but if you’re looking for an objective temperature check as to where we are at this stage of the cycle in the mist of the pandemic – this is it.President Trump’s well positioned to win.