President Trump’s reelection odds & the state of the Presidential race
Bottom Line: The odds are President Donald Trump will be reelected in 2020. Why?
- 65% of Presidents who run for reelection win
That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. A Presidential reelection bid is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent President. History has shown that if people are generally satisfied with the performance of the President – they'll vote to stay with him. That necessarily makes the relevance of the challenger a secondary consideration. In this story I've taken the historical approval ratings of incumbent Presidents running for reelection and tracked the outcomes of those elections. In so doing I’m able to project historical reelection odds for President Trump based on his current ratings.
Here’s where we stand as of today.
- 51% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 46%)
- 63% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)
Throughout the course of President Trump’s administration, he’s consistently performed best with likely voters. This remains the case as we’re under six months away from Election Day. Based on all current approval polling the presidential race is essentially a 50-50 proposition, however President Trump’s slight increase in approval over a week ago makes him the slight favorite. If we focus in on only likely voters, we see his advantage improve meaningfully making him the solid favorite.Inside of six months we typically see higher levels of engagement in the political process by voters that aren’t as ordinarily as engaged in the news of the day. As that’s happening,we’re seeing a narrowing of the polls, regardless of samples. Right now, the consolidating of opinion is generally favorable for President Trump.
Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who could most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. During the Democrat’s nominating process Joe Biden consistently appealed to the fewest new voters. Biden’s nomination would appear to play into President Trump’s best hand. The newest dynamic this week is the revelation that Joe Biden himself was involved in the scheme to unmask General Flynn and had direct involvement in the conspiracy to frame Donald Trump for fraudulent Russia collusion. This may not be getting coverage in most MSM outlets but rest assured will not be missed by President Trump or his campaign. Biden will be made to account for his involvement sooner or later. He’d previously stated he had no knowledge or involvement with any unmasking.
We’re in an election year unlike any other in the mist of the pandemic, there’s no telling what might happen during the final six months of this race but for now, based on all available data and historical context, President Trump is the clear current favorite to win reelection. To be continued...