Florida voter registration by party - June 2020 - GOP gains ground
Bottom Line: Don’t look now but we’re only about five months away from Election Day. After a brutal 2016 cycle which left even Trump supporters drained by the process, could it be that the election cycle could be a welcomed diversion from coronavirus and civil unrest? I’m sure we’ll have had enough by the time it’s over but for now the Presidential campaigns themselves remain the 3rd or 4th stories on any given day. It’s remarkable when you think about it. It also speaks to how much we’ve already been through this year.
We all know how important Florida is in any Presidential Election cycle. While it’s unclear what the political landscape will look like coming out of the pandemic, we do know what changes have taken place with voter registration in Florida in the mist of it has been generally good for Democrats. The state just released the latest update of statewide voter registration – which factors in all registered voters entering May. Based on the latest voter registration data from the state, gains have been made by minor parties and Republicans but the largest gains have come with newly registered Democrats, although Republicans made up a bit of lost ground during April after the completion of the Presidential primaries which attracted significant partisan registration to be able to participate in the process. This included many NPA’s who re-registered as Democrats to vote in the Democrat Presidential Primary.
After two years of gains by Republicans, Democrats have stepped up their registration efforts significantly in 2020. These are Florida voter registration changes by party year over year.
- DEM: +141,400
- GOP: +89,711
- Minor: +10,093
- NPA: -46,151
Democrats have added over 51,600 more new voters than Republicans year over year – though Republicans did narrow the gap by 11,000 voters over the past month. The Democrats registration gains are significant and exceed the victory margin for both Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in 2018 - though President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by over 100,000 votes in 2016. Now, not all registered Democrats or Republicans vote for all politicians of their political party but of course most do. It’s a significant gain over a year ago for Democrats and if the momentum continues the implications could be significant up and down the ballot this November.
The current breakout of registered voters looks like this...
- DEM: 37.3%
- GOP: 35.3%
- Minor: 1.1%
- NPA: 26.2%
The longer-term trend is still favorable for Republicans due to gains made since the 2016 cycle. Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016 when Donald Trump won Florida. Democrat’s hold a 2% advantage currently. To be continued...