The real unemployment rate – July 2020
Bottom Line: Just before the holiday weekend we received the much-anticipated jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The news, for a second month in a row, was exceedingly positive. A second consecutive month of record jobs growth. Cynics, many of which are economists, have been nay-saying the report, suggesting the timing of when the survey was taken can't be trusted because of the recent surge in coronavirus cases and subsequent restrictive policies by local governments. This was exactly what was suggested a month ago when May’s report set records. In fact, not only did we back up a record report with another record, we had positive revisions from the prior report – meaning May’s jobs gains were understated originally. As always there remain two sides to stories but one side to facts. As I do monthly, lets break down the facts...Let’s get started on the real unemployment rate.
First, the headline numbers:
- Unemployment rate 11.1% (Improvement of 2.2%)
- +4.8 million jobs
- Positive revisions from previous months totaling 90,000 additional jobs
Industries for biggest jobs recoveries:
- #1 Leisure and Hospitality
- #2 Retail
- #3 Education and Healthcare
It didn’t stop with those industries. Every industry added jobs except for mining. That’s highly encouraging. Now for the real unemployment rate once underemployed, long-term unemployed and marginally attached people are accounted for:
- Actual: 18%, an improvement of 3.2% over May
Key takeaways:
- There’s continued room for optimism and the possibility of a rapid recovery for much of the economy
- The bottom of the recession appears to have been in April
- Those unaccounted for in the base unemployment rate include 13 million Americans who are among the long-term unemployed, underemployed & marginally attached to the workforce. An improvement of 1.2 million people within the past month – also a new record.
Next up, the demographics of the unemployed in part two.