Florida voter registration by party - July 2020 - GOP gains ground
Bottom Line: Don’t look now but we’re only a little more than three months away from Election Day. After a brutal 2016 cycle which left even Trump supporters drained by the process, could it be that the election cycle could be a welcomed diversion from coronavirus and civil unrest? I’m sure we’ll have had enough by the time it’s over but for now the Presidential campaigns themselves remain the 3rd or 4th stories on any given day. It’s remarkable when you think about it. It also speaks to how much we’ve already been through this year.
First up for Floridians are our August 18th primaries with early voting set to begin August 3rd in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties with Broward starting early voting on the 8th. While it’s still unclear what the political landscape will look like in November, we do know what changes have taken place with voter registration in Florida most recently. The state just released the latest update of statewide voter registration – which factors in all registered voters entering June. Here are the takeaways:
- Republicans gained ground on Democrats for the second consecutive month
- NPA’s continued to reregister in a political party to participate in partisan primary races
- New voter registrations were lower than usual, likely due to the pandemic
After two years of gains by Republicans, Democrats have outpaced Republicans in overall registrations in 2020. This appears to have been driven by the Democrat’s Presidential Primary in March. Since April, Republicans have once again begun to outpace Democrats in voter registrations.
- DEM: +135,246
- GOP: +93,422 \
- Minor: +13,740
- NPA: -49,610
Democrats have added over 41,824 more new voters than Republicans year over year – though Republicans did narrow the gap by 9,776 voters over the past month and more than 20,000 over the past two. Not all registered Democrats or Republicans vote for all politicians of their political party but of course, most do.
The current breakout of registered voters looks like this...
- DEM: 37.3%
- GOP: 35.4%
- Minor: 1.2%
- NPA: 26.2%
The longer-term trend is favorable for Republicans due to gains made since the 2016 cycle. Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016 when Donald Trump won Florida. Democrat’s hold a 1.9% advantage currently. To be continued...