Early voting begins today for Florida’s August Primaries
Bottom Line: Early voting starts today in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties (along with numerous others around the state – Broward joins Saturday) for Florida’s August 18th primaries. Like everything else this year, it feels weird. We’re just coming off of a weekend of watching a hurricane pass us by during a pandemic which will require all South Floridian’s to wear a mask when they go to place votes. Speaking of the pandemic, it’s led to a record 4 million+ ballots requested to be voted by mail - a 64% increase over the previous election cycle. As a result, a record 1.1 million votes have already been received by the state as early voting beings in Florida. Here’s a look at what’s already happened.
Percentage of ballots requested:
- Democrats: 46.3%
- Republicans: 32.7%
- NPA: 19.9%
Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1.8% in voter registration. Absentee ballot requests by Democrats far outpaced Republicans on a relative basis. Republicans have typically been more likely to vote in person, especially on Election Day in Florida previously. Will that be the case again? During this atypical year we won’t know until we get there but it’s clear Democrats were far more motivated to request absentee ballots than Republicans for the primaries. What do the early returns show?
Percentage of ballots returned:
- Democrats: 47.6%
- Republicans: 37%
- NPA: 14.6%
Clearly Democrats have the early lead on votes already received, though Republicans have already narrowed the gap based on difference in votes requested. On a relative basis Republicans have been the most likely to return a ballot, followed by Democrats, with NPA’s lagging. It’s typical to see NPA’s vote at a lower percentage in primary elections due to their inability to vote in partisan contests, however many elections will be decided August 18th, and every voter in South Florida has elections to vote for on their ballots regardless of party registration. So, now we watch and wait to see what happens in early voting. Historically Florida’s Democrats have had a voter turnout advantage in early voting with Republicans most inclined to turnout on Election Day. Will that trend hold, or will fewer Democrats vote early because they’ve already voted by mail? How will the pandemic impact in person turnout for Republicans which has been and, based on vote by mail ballots will be, critical for their preferred candidates this year? To be continued...