Florida Early voting update - August 11th
Bottom Line: It’s been a year unlike any other which is leading to an election cycle unlike any other as well. This has included a record number of Floridian’s requesting ballots to vote by mail for the August primaries in advance of the August 18th Election Day. How significant is the difference? Consider that in the August 2018 primaries a total of 1.35 million votes by mail were received by the state. As of Monday, 1.54 million had already rolled in – more than the total from the entire 2018 election. Record votes by mail have already been received by the state for our August primaries. Of course, those aren’t the only votes which are rolling in prior to Election Day. Early voting is active statewide through Sunday. This opens up the biggest question mark of all. How will in-person turnout be during the pandemic? With all votes received by the state through Monday, here’s turnout based on voter registration:
- Democrat: 49%
- Republican: 37%
- NPA/Other: 13%
Democrats are maintaining a double-digit advantage as Republicans are underperforming with votes by mail while maintaining an edge in early voting thus far. It’s clear the aggressive vote by mail campaign by Democrats is paying off. If Republicans are going to be competitive in turnout for the August 18th elections, they’re going to have to grow their advantage in early voting and turnout in big numbers on Election Day. What we’re seeing play out is a bit of a reversal from the norm. Historically Republicans have led in votes by mail while Democrats have led in early voting. Republicans typically win in turnout on Election Day. What’s happening here is also highly instructive among party partisans as they attempt to best plan to activate their voters for November’s elections. To be continued.