2020 Election Series: The Anatomy of a Swing State
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Bottom Line: We’re now under eleven weeks away from Election Day on November 3rd. Each cycle I analyze states that were decided by ten points or less in the previous presidential election cycle. These represent potential swing states that are in play for both parties heading into each cycle. It’s a fluid number from cycle to cycle which reflects changes in the electorate overtime. In 2016 there were 16 states decided by fewer than ten points. President Trump won 30 states in 2016 including nine of the sixteen swing states which proved key to his victory. That’s where this series begins this year. Notably, President Trump doesn’t have to retain all of those states to win reelection. His margin of victory, with 306 electoral votes, was 36 more than what’s needed to win. Here’s a map of the country with the electoral votes represented by each state based on the 2016 election outcomes: https://www.270towin.com/maps/270towin-election-night-map
For this second edition of the Anatomy of a Swing State I’m comparing current averaged polling in the swing states compared to where President Trump was polling on the same date in 2016. This provides an apples to apples temperature check of how President Trump is trending compared to exactly four years ago.
Polling averages August 18th, 2016 compared to August 18th, 2020:
- Arizona: Trump minus 6
- Florida: Trump minus 1
- Georgia: Trump plus 1
- Iowa: Trump plus 2
- Michigan: Trump plus 2
- North Carolina: Trump plus 2
- Ohio: Trump plus 1
- Pennsylvania: Trump plus 2
- Wisconsin: Trump plus 3
President Trump is performing better in seven of the nine swing states than he was on the same date in 2016. However, the two states he’s running behind in are Arizona and Florida. Notably, he could give up either of those two states if he carried the others, but Trump wouldn’t be able to lose both Arizona and Florida and still win without pulling in a state Clinton carried four years ago. Realistically Trump’s performance in Florida, only one-point off of four years ago isn’t cause for concern (and he won Florida by more than 1% anyway). The deep decline in Arizona against four years ago could be cause for concern in that state.
Here are the states carried by Hillary Clinton which Joe Biden will need to retain in addition to adding at least two of the Trump states if he’s to win this year.
Here's Biden’s current polling performance compared Hillary Clinton in 2016:
- Colorado - Flat
- Maine – Biden +1
- Minnesota – N\A
- Nevada – Biden +2
- New Hampshire - Biden +1
- New Mexico - N\A
- Virginia - Biden +1
Of the five states with which we have comparative data, Biden is riding slightly ahead of Hillary four years ago in those states – while right in line with one. Then there are the two wildcards. Minnesota and New Mexico. We don’t have any polling comparisons to four years ago because pollsters didn’t expect them to be competitive four years ago. Minnesota, in particular, is one to watch. If Trump is to pick up any state won by Clinton four years ago – New Hampshire, which he lost by under 1% would be first. But Minnesota would likely be next. What’s interesting was Trump’s winning performance in Wisconsin four years ago and the fact that Minnesota has been the most reliable Democrat state in Presidential elections starting with 1976. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican for president was Nixon in 1972 and yet Trump lost it by only 1.5%. If its recent trend were to take one more step right – Trump could flip it. The bottom line this week is that each candidate has a state or two to be concerned with. President Trump might have real issues in Arizona and needs to be mindful of Florida – while Joe Biden shouldn’t take Minnesota for granted and should focus on trying to flip Florida along with Arizona based on this comparative data.
While a lot has changed in four years, the lay of the land as of this week is mostly status quo in swing states with four years ago. The status quo would be good news for President Trump. To be continued...