Q&A of the Day – How accurate are hurricane season predictions?
Each day I’ll feature a listener question that’s been submitted by one of these methods.
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Today’s entry: @brianmuddradio every season they forecast the worst hurricane season. At some point they will be right. Its like saying next month you will die, at some point I will be right.
Bottom Line: I’m not a fan of weather hype any more than you appear to be but as often can be the case, there may be a difference between perception and reality when it comes hurricane season predictions. As we’re now into peak hurricane season (traditionally the last two weeks of August and first two weeks of September) in one of the most active hurricane seasons on record, it’s natural to feel like there’s been a lot of weather hype. Especially after the hurricane warning from Isaias that wasn't even a tropical storm for South Florida...but here’s the thing. Your perception might not meet reality. How do you think the National Hurricane Center’s preseason forecast for activity usually compares to what happens? Here’s a look at the past five years.
NHC Preseason forecast for named storms (using the midpoint of their predictions) compared to outcomes by year:
- 2015: 9 Actual: 11
- 2016: 13 Actual: 14
- 2017: 14 Actual: 17
- 2018: 13 Actual: 15
- 2019: 12 Actual: 18
Over the past five years the midpoint of the National Hurricane Center’s preseason forecasting has underestimated the number of named storms every year. They’ve averaged predicting 12 named storms and we’ve averaged 15. The National Hurricane Center has errored on the side of conservative forecasting rather than weather hype. Now, what other meteorologists may say or how responsibly they may present information may paint a different picture, but as for the predictions of the most credible experts – they've certainly not engaged in hype. Coming into the season the mid-point of their guidance called for 16 named storms. The most in recent years. Given our current pace that too will likely prove to be conservative – which is why they recently upgraded their forecast. As always there remain two sides to stories and one side to facts. The National Hurricane Center hasn’t engaged in hype based on predictions. If anything, it’s been the opposite.