Which election cycle 2020 most resembles
Bottom Line: Each election cycle has its own unique attributes; however, Americans have been highly cyclical and even predictable in voting habits overtime. For example, Americans are most likely to vote for the opposition party candidate to the full-term president in open Presidential cycles. We’re most likely to vote for the opposition party to the President in mid-term elections, however we’re most likely to reelect a President running for reelection. These trends provide insight into this election cycle as well. This cycle is defined by a Republican incumbent President running for re-election. These are the Republican incumbents which have won reelection since the advent of the current two-party system in 1860:
- Abraham Lincoln
- Ulysses S. Grant
- William McKinley
- Dwight Eisenhower
- Richard Nixon
- Ronald Reagan
- George W. Bush
Here are the failed reelection bids by Republican Presidents:
- Herbert Hoover
- George H.W. Bush
Of these nine cycles which does this one most resemble? One stands out above the others. George W. Bush’s reelection bid. Here are the similarities:
- Won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote
- Both presided over a recession brought about largely by unforeseen national emergencies. Both passed tax cuts and saw record stock market performances heading into the election
It’s almost uncanny how many similarities there are between the two. In fact, here’s one more for you. On this date in 2004, John Kerry led Bush in an average of the national polls. The turning point in 2004 for George W. Bush, who went on to win a bigger victory in 2004 than he did originally in 2000, was momentum created during the Republican National Convention. Bush enjoyed a polling lead by early September which he never relinquished. President Trump will be hoping history repeats itself after the RNC this year as well.