2020 Election Series: The Anatomy of a Swing State
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Bottom Line: We’re now under ten weeks away from Election Day on November 3rd. Each cycle I analyze states that were decided by ten points or less in the previous presidential election cycle. These represent potential swing states that are in play for both parties heading into each cycle. It’s a fluid number from cycle to cycle which reflects changes in the electorate overtime. In 2016 there were 16 states decided by fewer than ten points. President Trump won 30 states in 2016 including nine of the sixteen swing states which proved key to his victory. Notably, President Trump doesn’t have to retain all of those states to win reelection. His margin of victory, with 306 electoral votes, was 36 more than what’s needed to win.
For this third edition of the Anatomy of a Swing State series I’m breaking down how the sixteen states trended in 2016. While all sixteen states were decided by ten points or less, was the result in the 2016 election trending towards blue or red? If the 2020 election turns out to be a continuation of trends established in 2016 this could be a tell as to how these states break in 2020. Here are states that Trump performed better in than Mitt Romney did in 2012:
- Colorado
- Florida
- Iowa
- Maine
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
- Nevada
- North Carolina
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Conversely, here are states Hillary Clinton performed better in than Barak Obama in 2012:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Virginia
What we learn from this exercise is that while President Trump won only nine of the 16 swing states in 2016, he performed better than Romney did in thirteen of them. If this trend were to continue there would be a lot for President Trump to feel good about entering November. Let’s say these trends were to play out to completion. The swing states trending towards Trump represent, along with those he comfortably won, 309 Electoral Votes. Three more than what he won with in 2016. In a close election this provides a view of the possible. There are many potential paths for Trump to take towards victory in November. At the same it’s evident why Democrats are excited about Arizona and Georgia – the trend is thier friend in those states. This view paints a slightly different view of swing states as either blue or red. They’re all more fluid than not over recent election cycles. To be continued...