Was there a Trump bump from the RNC?
Bottom Line: Last week I brought you the news that there was no Biden bump from the DNC the week before. To review, there were four national pollsters who polled on Biden before the convention and after the convention had concluded. The net result was an average decline of 0.5% in the polls. Previously I’d shared with you the history of convention bounces. The average bounce, regardless of party, is just over 5% for Presidential candidates after a political convention. With fresh post-convention polling now being available...was there a Trump bump? Yes. Here’s the breakout:
Change in Trump approval prior to the convention and after by pollster:
- USA Today / Suffolk: +5%
- Rasmussen Reports: +1%
- Economist / YouGov: -2%
- Emerson: +4%
- IBD/TIPP: -2%
- Politico / Morning Consult: Flat
The net result was a gain of 1% on average across all pollsters. Not huge obviously, but when paired with Biden’s slight decline, President Trump is better positioned today coming out of the conventions, than he was entering them. This is also represented in the betting odds which have gone from 61% in favor of Biden a month ago, to 50-50 today.
There are typically three flashpoints of consequence in the final three months of a Presidential election. The conventions, the debates, October surprises/external catalysts. President Trump has edged out Joe Biden on the first of those three flashpoints. Onward to the debates...