The trend is Trump’s friend
Bottom Line: Taking polls at face value and drawing meaningful deductions about them is generally a fool's errand. Of course, that doesn’t mean they aren’t useful when taken in context which is how I choose to use them. In context, over the past week the Trump train has gained momentum. There are five approval polls which have been conducted within the past week and they’re pointing in the same direction – up for President Trump. Rather than focusing on the overall number, here’s a peak at the trend in each of these polls compared to each pollster’s previous reporting (Change in the approval rating of President Trump):
- Gallup: flat
- The Hill/HarrisX: +3
- Fox News: +4
- Rasmussen: +4
- Economist/YouGov: +2
That’s an average 3-point improvement this week. In context it’s an especially big deal. To begin with voting is actually underway in a handful of states this week with absentee/vote by mail ballots having been sent out. Having momentum when votes are being cast has historically been a leading indicator of how independents are breaking. Additionally, all related polling has been conducted well past the end of both party conventions – taking any short term bounce out of the equation. And finally, having momentum heading into the debates has historically produced the biggest swings in polls after them for candidates who perform well. The rational is like this. If a candidate has momentum and is perceived to have debated well – it's often been the final cog in the winning wheel. If a candidate is fledgling a good debate performance often can reset a race but not define it. There’s an example of each involving President Obama. In 2008 President Obama held momentum in heading into the first debate, though John McCain commonly would show a lead head to head in what was expected to be a close election. Instead Obama’s first debate performance, which easily bested McCain’s turned the race into an Election Day rout. In 2012, once again Obama held momentum and an edge. In the first debate however, Romney soundly took it to him. Because Romney had been fledgling up to that point, the race became competitive, but he wasn’t able to seal the deal and Obama won again – albeit with a smaller margin of victory. This evidenced momentum – less than two weeks away from the first debate – bodes extremely well for President Trump if he can take it to Biden in the first debate.