The Florida Election Series - September 18th
Bottom Line: This week Florida’s political scene featured Joe Biden’s trip to Central Florida courting Hispanic voters on back of Kamala Harris’s recent visit to South Florida. Given how little campaigning Biden has done this year – it speaks volumes about the importance he places on attempting to win over Florida’s Latino’s which recent polling has suggested are far more likely to break for President Trump compared to four years ago – when Trump won Florida. As for the current landscape of our state here are a few related factoids as we’re now under seven weeks away from Election Day:
- Republicans have narrowed the Democrats lead in voter registration from 2.5% in 2016 to 1.7% today
- More Democrats than Republicans voted in the August primary elections for the first time in over 20 years and Democrats have requested nearly 800,000 more vote by mail ballots than Republicans for November’s general election.
There’s something for both parties to like. Republicans likely feel good about voter registration trends which have continued to be favorable for them over both the short and longer-term in Florida. It’s clear Florida’s electorate generally is continuing to inch towards the right. Conversely, Democrats should feel good about setting a record for votes by mail in Florida’s August primaries, flipping a traditional Republican strength into one of their own and turning that momentum immediately into action for November’s election. Florida’s general election turnout is historically high at 75%, so it’s likely many of these ballots for November would have been in-person voters, however even a one-percent increase among Democrats state-wide in turnout based on an effective vote-by-mail effort could be the difference in many races. None the least of which is the Presidential race which is pacing to be extremely close once again.
We didn’t receive any new polling in swing Congressional Districts – so for now the Republican advantages in Florida’s 26th and 27th remain, representing potential flips for Republicans in both of those races. Regarding Florida’s Presidential race... This week three polls have been released show Joe Biden with an average 1-point lead. Four years ago, today, Trump was averaging a 1-point lead in our state. Trump won Florida by 1.2%. To be continued...