The Florida Election Series – October 2nd
Bottom Line: You know we’re getting down to crunch time with a Presidential election because the President of the United States was scheduled to be in Florida for the second time in as many weeks today (prior the positive COVID-19 diagnosis) and Joe Biden is scheduled to be back on Monday. That’s independent of the second Presidential debate which will be taking place in Miami in a couple of weeks. As we’re getting down to crunch time here are a few key developments to consider:
- Republicans have narrowed the Democrats lead in voter registration from 2.5% in 2016 to 1.3% today.
- Record numbers of vote by mail ballots (totaling more than 5 million) have been sent out to voters with Democrats outpacing Republican requests by approximately 800,000 ballots.
- A total of 35,500 ballots cast by mail were rejected in the August primaries with Democrats having 5,600 more votes invalidated than Republicans. That translates into an estimated 15,000+ votes which would be invalidated in the general election.
Starting Monday, we’ll begin to receive additional information from the Florida Division of Elections on vote by mail ballots which have been received by the state. As a reminder Monday is also the voter registration deadline in Florida for this cycle and early voting begins October 19th.
- As for polling across our state. Here's are highlights based on the most recent polling available.
- Only one Presidential Florida poll was released this week which showed Biden up 4 – this after Florida was polling as a tie a week ago.
- No new congressional polls were released this week which leaves Republicans showing leads in Florida’s 18th (Mast), 26th Gimenez and 27th (Elvira Salazar). The 26th and 27th would be GOP pickups.
While there wasn’t any new congressional polling, there was news in the 27th Congressional Race. For the second time this year it’s been disclosed that Democrat incumbent Donna Shalala failed to report stock sales which is a violation of federal disclosure laws. While Shalala stated it was simple oversight the first time, rather than an effort to hide investment transactions which might reflect potential conflicts of interests, a second violation so quickly raises additional ethics questions which would likely be probed if Democrats weren’t in control of the House.
Trends now matter more because Floridians are now officially voting with vote by mail ballots being sent out by the millions. The next week will surely be festive. Until then...