Florida vote by mail update for October 12th
Bottom Line: Floridians have now been able to vote by mail for two full week. Florida’s Division of Elections has been providing regular updates on votes received and recorded statewide. While we’re still a week away from the onset of early voting in Florida, already nearly 1.7 million votes by mail have already been officially cast and these are my takeaways.
- 42% of all ballots requested to be voted by mail have already been cast and recorded
- Far more Democrats have returned ballots than Republicans on a relative and absolute basis
It’s clear Democrats have successfully built upon their vote by mail campaign used in the August Primary elections. The three counties with the most Democrats statewide are leading in votes by mail requested and received by a margin that well exceeds their populations. Broward, Miami Dade and Palm Beach Counties account for 29% of the state’s population but have accounted for about half of all votes by mail cast thus far. As of Sunday, on an absolute basis, here’s the party breakout of votes received in Florida:
- Democrats: 51%
- Republicans: 29%
- NPA’s & Others: 20%
That’s a 22% lead in turnout, or a near 359-thousand vote advantage for Democrats over Republicans. In 2016 Republicans slightly out-voted Democrats in votes by mail, while Democrats held an advantage in Early voting. The question remains this...are Democrats borrowing would be votes at the polls in their early voting counts or will they have successfully expanded their voting base and increased turnout by mail? We’ll have a much clearer picture once early voting kicks off. For now, it’s clear Florida’s Republicans will have to flip the script on early voting, much the way Democrats have on votes by mail, if they’re to match the success they had statewide four years ago. To be continued...