2020 Election Series: The Anatomy of a Swing State – October 14th
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Bottom Line: We’re now under three weeks away from Election Day. Each cycle I analyze states that were decided by ten points or less in the previous presidential election cycle. These represent potential swing states that are in play for both parties heading into each cycle. It’s a fluid number which reflects changes in the electorate overtime. In 2016 there were 16 states decided by fewer than ten points. President Trump won 30 states in 2016 including nine of the sixteen swing states which proved key to his victory. Notably, President Trump doesn’t have to retain all those states to win reelection. His margin of victory, with 306 electoral votes, was 36 more than what’s needed to win.
Here’s the current averaged polling in the swing states compared to where President Trump was polling on the same date in 2016. This provides an apples-to-apples temperature check of how President Trump is trending compared to exactly four years ago. Polls can’t be taken at face value without adjusting for samples. As a result, I’m not interested in which candidate polls suggest are leading in a particular state but rather where Trump is tracking compared to four years ago.
Polling averages October 13th, 2016 compared to October 13th, 2020:
- Arizona: Trump -4
- Florida: Trump -1
- Georgia: Trump -5
- Iowa: Trump -3
- Michigan: Trump +4
- North Carolina: Flat
- Ohio: Trump +1
- Pennsylvania: Trump +2
- Wisconsin: Flat
Over the past week President Trump’s pacing:
Improved in:
- Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Was unchanged:
- Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin
Worsened:
- Florida, North Carolina
The bottom line is that the past week has generally been a good one for President Trump in swing states he carried in 2016. Most importantly, he’s currently pacing well enough, given his margin of victory in each state in 2016, to carry all but Arizona currently. Now for a look at Biden’s current pacing compared Hillary Clinton four years ago today:
- Colorado – Biden +3
- Maine – Biden +8
- Minnesota – Biden +5
- Nevada – Biden +4
- New Hampshire – Biden +4
- New Mexico - Biden +3
- Virginia - Biden +4
Improved in:
- New Hampshire
Was unchanged:
- Minnesota, Nevada, Virginia
Worsened:
- Colorado, Maine, New Mexico
Biden’s pacing was a mixed bag this week but the bottom line for him is that he’s actually pacing better than Hillary Clinton in the swing states she won compared to four years ago today – so he’s on track to hang on to all of them as of now. So as of this week’s update Joe Biden hangs onto the Clinton swing states and adds Arizona but that’s not enough to win the election. Based on this week’s Anatomy of a Swing State update President Trump leads the Electoral College 295-243 – his best performance in a month. To be continued...