Takeaways from Florida’s 2020 voter turnout
Bottom Line: As part of yesterday’s Q&A I brought up Florida's 2020 general election voter turnout. It got me to thinking about hype vs. reality and how it’s relevant as South Florida’s a week away from municipal elections in 24 cities. For all of the talk about Florida possibly breaking records for turnout last November – it didn’t happen. In fact, we weren’t even close. Florida’s actual voter turnout of eligible voters checked in at 77%. It was up from 2016 but only by 2% - though 77% equals the 2nd highest level of participation in Florida’s history. Still, we fell well short of the record 82% turnout set in the 1992 cycle. That provides us with the view of the possible. As of now there are 23% of eligible Floridians who simply aren’t likely to vote no matter what. As I cited yesterday, local only elections average around an 18% level of turnout in South Florida. That means there appear to be about 18% of South Floridians who care enough that they’ll vote no matter what. The question then becomes how to best activate the remaining 59% in local elections. I have an idea on where to start.
This might be the least surprising but most important concept to discuss. Numerous studies have been conducted over the years regarding local voter turnout and outcomes in communities. They pretty much all land in the same place. Communities which have the highest voter turnout in local elections tend to be represented the best whereas communities with the lowest local turnout often feature the worst representation. A 2015 study by Demos summed it up well. The lower the turnout, the more likely political donors are to be more highly represented. The higher the turnout, the more likely residents independent of donor interests, are to be represented.
In federal election cycles there’s always a lot of talk of campaign financing, dark money, special interests, etc. That’s not to say they don’t often get what they pay for when their candidates win, but when do you ever hear this discussed with local elections. Research shows donors/special interests disproportionately benefit the most from low turnout in local elections. I’m sure just about anyone would rather have their city council serving their interests above the interests of political donors if asked. The key to making that happen is to show up to vote.
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