Top Three Takeaways – April 27th, 2021
- The more things change the more they stay the same. The Census changes are in and they’re considerable. Seven states lost influence in the Electoral College while six states gained. Seven states lost Congressional representation while six states gained. And while the changes are meaningful, trends are the same. Texas and Florida remain the biggest gainers. Texas and Florida are the only two states to have gained representation in each Census cycle over the past90years. And while Texas gained two Electoral College votes and two seats in Congress compared to Florida’s one and one, Florida’s actually been the fastest growing state in representation over the past 100 years as well. So yeah, the more things change the more they stay the same. Including where we’re most commonly gaining representation from...Californians fleeing to Texas and New Yorkers to Florida.
- Bet on it? Yesterday Florida’s CFO Jimmy Patronis told me that while it could take as long as ten years to sort things out with expanding gaming in Florida, the state’s desire is to have sports betting in place by football season .A lot of thing shave to break right to make that happen but with football season representing peak sports betting season, the Seminoles and the state appear poised to try to make it happen. But should you bet on it? I’m not a gambler so I’m not the right one to assign the odds. The key would still appear to be in the courts. The “No Casinos” group which was behind 2018’s Amendment 3 have said the new compact between the state and Seminoles violates not one but three provisions of Florida’s Constitution and they’re ready to sue as soon as it passes. The one silver lining should this get hung up or even killed in the courts – would be the potential lesson learned by Floridians. Stop voting for what you don’t really understand- especially when it’s amending the state’s constitution. Which takes me to...
- Raise the threshold for Constitutional Amendments. As we’re into the final week of the state legislative session bills in the House and Senate to introduce a proposed constitutional amendment to raise the threshold for constitutional amendments are on track but stalled. I’d like to see them installed. Time and again interest groups with impressive marketing schemes have pushed proposals which Floridians have voted for in the form of constitutional amendments. Studies have shown when people don’t understand a ballot issue but vote anyway, they’re most likely to vote for it. That makes Florida’s 60% threshold for constitutional amendments somewhat easy to attain for something so impactful. That’s why for example, a majority of Floridians are in favor of expanded gaming, however 71% voted against it in 2018. The proposals in Florida’s House and Senate would propose an amendment which would be on next year’s ballot that would raise the threshold for amendments to a two-third's vote. Ironically that still wouldn’t have stopped 2018’s Amendment 3 mistake, but it would help Florida protect its constitution from ignorance in the future.
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