What Census changes mean in the Electoral College & Congress

What Census changes mean in the Electoral College & Congress

Bottom Line: Monday’s Census announcement, delayed by four months due to the pandemic, set the stage for what will be for the next ten years. There are now over 331 million Americans and where we’re located continues to shift from the northeast and Midwest to the southeast and west. Texas was the biggest gainer adding two Electoral College votes and two congressional seats. In Florida, we were second adding one and one. Here are all the changes.

States gaining seats in the House of Representatives:

  • Texas:2
  • Colorado: 1
  • Florida: 1
  • Montana: 1
  • North Carolina: 1
  • Oregon: 1

Texas and Florida are set to gain as much representation as the five other states combined. That’s also a preview of what’s to come in the Electoral College. Here are the states those states are set to gain representation from...

States that are set to lose representation in the House of Representatives:

  • California: 1
  • Illinois: 1
  • Michigan: 1
  • New York: 1
  • Ohio: 1
  • Pennsylvania: 1
  • West Virginia: 1

So, what then about the Electoral College. How is that likely to change? These are the states set to gain in the Electoral College based upon Census changes:

  • Texas:2votes
  • Colorado: 1 vote
  • Florida: 1 vote
  • Montana: 1 vote
  • North Carolina: 1 vote
  • Oregon: 1 vote

And the losers...

  • California 1 vote
  • Illinois 1 vote
  • Michigan 1 vote
  • Ohio 1 vote
  • New York 1 vote
  • Pennsylvania 1 vote
  • West Virginia 1 vote

Net-net what would the difference in the Electoral College have been in the 2020 election cycle? Donald Trump would have fared better by three Electoral College votes, or the equivalent of a small state. The changes in the Electoral College and Congress would appear to be generally favorable for Republicans. This will be key for Republicans as they seek to gain control of Congress in next year’s midterm election cycle. 

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