Top Three Takeaways – May 19th, 2021
- It was just a fantasy. The multiple bills proposed to legalize and standardize online paid fantasy sports leagues have joined bingo and online casino gambling in the special session’s dust bin of history. A check of the state senate’s actions from Tuesday reveal the notation “retained on Calendar”. That’s another way of saying died in committee. Shortly after Governor DeSantis’s triumphant declaration over a 75-page overhaul to the Seminole Compact, with a special session dedicated to it, confidence ran high in gaming circles and by those who advocate for expanded gaming. As I mentioned on Monday, the legislature didn’t just bring the minimum proposals to ratify the contempt to the table, they brought everything related to gaming. Bingo, fantasy sports, online casino gambling – all on the agenda. Maybe expectations were too high by some going in, regardless after two days – less than half of what was proposed is left and it’s clear nothing’s a done deal in this session until it is. There are only four bills left, all needed in order to make the renegotiated compact work. It doesn’t appear the compact, as already revised in the legislature, is in danger of failing but there’s no room left for legislative failures from here if it’s to happen this year. And it’s evident that aside from sports gaming, no significant expansions to gaming are set to imminently occur in Florida.
- Turn of events. Who are Florida’s three most prominent elected Democrats? It’s somewhat debatable, but most likely you named Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried and Val Demings (honorable mention to DWS for her time leading the DNC). Know what they’re all likely to have in common in January of 2023? Unemployment. Ok, so I’m not saying they’re all going to lose their races, I take nothing for granted politically these days. Here’s the thing though...assuming Nikki Fried’s June first announcement isn’t a new gas pump sticker but rather her announcement she’s running for governor and assuming the reporting that Val Demings is running for senate is accurate, we have an interesting dynamic. Not just high-profile, high-stakes races for governor and senate, full of intrigue...but three Democrats which will open as underdogs in their races. Much has been made of Florida’s turn towards the right in recent cycles, but the ultimate exclamation point would be if Florida’s three most prominent elected Democrats are all out of office after next year, which as of today is the most likely outcome. And that’s because of...
- The outlook. Governor DeSantis currently holds a net positive approval rating of twenty or so points, while Rubio’s at a net-positive 5% rating with President Biden at negative 2% in Florida. Clearly Rubio’s more vulnerable as of today than DeSantis, hence why Demings is opting for that race, however the average member of Congress currently has a net-negative approval rating making Rubio one of the more popular senators in the country among his constituents. In other words, unless all incumbents are set to lose net year, Rubio’s in one of the best positions to win reelection, which is first and foremost a referendum on what voters think of him. Add in historical trends in midterm cycles, favorable for the party out of power in Washington, and Florida has the potential to deliver Democrats their worst loses in our state’s history next year with potentially all of their top candidates falling.
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