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Q&A Of The Day – Is It Time To Worry About Breakthrough Cases? Part 2
Bottom Line: It was just on Friday in my top three takeaways I had this to say. COVID-19's variants as the new seasonal flu, get your head around it. History has a way of repeating itself. That’s why it’s good to know it. For over a year now I’ve talked of the need to wrap our brains around the idea that COVID-19, and its variants, are the new seasonal flu. It wasn’t based on theory, it was based on scientific history. Now, much of the context of that conversation was centered around the realization that COVID-19 and its minion variants are probably here to stay, so unless you want to live the rest of your life in isolation, it’s probably a good idea to begin to open up to our potential reality. But there’s another dynamic I didn’t discuss that ties into what potentially, I want to emphasize we don’t have hard facts on this yet, could be happening with a rise in breakthrough cases.
Let’s say COVID-19's variants have superseded the 100-year run of the H1N1 virus to become the new seasonal flu. Consider this...according to CDC studies the average efficacy of the traditional flu vaccine has been...43%. The highest year for efficacy on record is 60%, or lower than the least effective vaccine for COVID-19 on the market at the onset. The worst year for flu vaccine efficacy, a paltry 10%. So, what’s history tell us? Most people who get a flu vaccine will catch the flu if they’re exposed to it. Savvy what this may mean for where we are today? And there’s the thing. The big fat ugly viral thing in the room (elephants are cute and wonderful).
Come flu season the CDC and related healthcare agencies don’t go out of their way to tell you that the flu vaccine generally isn’t effective for most people at preventing one from contracting the flu. They just tell you to get it. That’s because in their minds 43% efficacy, or even 10% at worst, is better than nothing. If they do that for the traditional ole’ flu, you know they’d be inclined to keep quiet on the efficacy change of the COVID-19 vaccines for variants. If people weren’t inclined to get a COVID-19 vaccine when the efficacy was reported from 66% to 95%, you know those who aren’t vaccinated aren’t changing their mind for something potentially below than those numbers. This, along with the challenges in getting breakthrough data in the first place, will conspire to likely keep us in the dark until independent experts figure out what’s real, or there are new vaccines more effective at dealing with the variants. Until next flu season anyway.