Photo: AFP
Top Three Takeaways – July 26th, 2021
- Time for a reality check. I want to talk about the virus about as much as I want to contract it. Unfortunately, there’s no good way around it. It’s time for a pandemic reality check. There are numerous ways I could illustrate the points of what’s happening around us in real-time, but there’s one number that sticks out above the rest in Florida. 14%. That’s how many more new cases of COVID-19 we had on Saturday compared to a year ago on that date. And it’s not just about that day. Florida’s averaged over 10,000 daily cases over the past week – in line with a year ago. That’s an unfortunate reality most didn’t expect to have to face. A year ago, 3% of Floridians had contracted COVID-19 and there were no vaccines. Now, 11% of Floridians have contracted the virus with 59% who’ve been at least partially vaccinated. Also, it’s not just about cases, it’s about hospitalizations. Hospitalizations are back to their highest levels in Florida since February. Also of concern, who’s being hospitalized. 53% of Floridians currently hospitalized with COVID-19 are under 60. Some of that is likely due to vaccination levels being lower as you look younger, however as of July 19th according to the CDC, there were over 5,900 people who’d been fully vaccinated and were hospitalized or had died. All of this speaks to what we have...
- A vaccine problem. While many in news media are seemingly giddy about Florida suddenly leading the country in new COVID-19 cases in the name of politics... What isn’t political is the ever-increasing reality that the whole country and likely world has a vaccine problem. Last week I illustrated the impossibility of vaccine efficacy remaining at levels previously promised. The only question was how much more ineffective they would be. On Thursday I had this to say: If the bell curve of efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines were to be somewhat similar to the traditional flu vaccine, much of what we’re seeing would be explained. The traditional flu vaccine retains no efficacy after 5-6 months while having lost most of its efficacy after four. With the first fully vaccinated Floridians having completed the schedule in January, we’re now six full months into the process. Other than this being meant for informational purposes which might, and I want to emphasize might, provide an explanation regarding the rise in “breakthrough” cases, it’s something we probably should be mindful of – even if fully vaccinated – while we wait to see exactly what’s real. On Friday, I said this in the context of understanding the possibility that COVID-19's variants are the new seasonal flu: When the annual flu vaccines rolled around, I’ve talked of the importance of understanding what the flu vaccine is and isn’t. What it is and has been is a tool that may help protect you against infection and may minimize symptoms if you do get sick. What it isn’t and historically hasn’t been is effective at preventing infection for most people who get it with an average efficacy of only 43%. And later on Friday we learned this: A first of its kind study out of Israel which measured the Pfizer vaccine’s efficacy against the Delta variant. It likely fills in one of the blanks. The Pfizer vaccine proved only 39% effective in protecting recipients from contracting COVID-19. We have no clue where the Moderna or J&J stands against the variants but yes, it appears we have a vaccine problem, at least to the extent it was viewed as the panacea to put the coronavirus behind us.
- Looking for good news? Check your retirement accounts. We enter this week with stocks at record highs based on the best earnings season against expectations in recorded history with over 88% of companies reporting so far beating expectations.