Top Three Takeaways – August 2nd, 2021

Top Three Takeaways – August 2nd, 2021

1. It’s here. The peak of the pandemic in Florida. Last week I had this to say 88% of Floridians have managed to get this far into the pandemic without catching the virus yet. The next two-weeks are likely to leave us with levels approaching or exceeding peak spread in Florida at any time during the pandemic. It’s a reminder to be careful lest you be part of this story over the next couple of weeks. Well, we’re there. And the challenge isn’t just that the spread of the virus is the most pervasive it’s been at any time during the pandemic, it’s that we don’t know if we’re near the peak. It wasn’t just that Saturday’s 21,683 new cases was the highest of any day during the pandemic. It’s also that the trend was spiking heading into it. For perspective, consider this. On July 1st Florida was averaging 1,600 new cases per day. Today, the daily average stands at 15,800. And it’s not just about cases it is about outcomes as well. Florida’s experiencing peak hospitalizations and rising deaths as well. Entering July, Florida averaged 30 daily deaths attributed to COVID-19, now it’s doubled and rising – with Florida turning in its first day with over a hundred deaths on Saturday, since March. It’s not just about young unvaccinated Floridians any longer, it’s clearly about breakthroughs as well. Speaking of which...
2. Breakthroughs. Until recently I enjoyed talking about breakthroughs because generally, they’re positives. The vaccines themselves were breakthroughs but increasingly it’s clear the vaccines are breaking down for many people. While we still don’t have a read on the Delta variant with any vaccine but the Pfizer, which dropped preventative capabilities from 95% to 39% but we do know that breakthroughs are rapidly occuring. We just don’t know how rapidly until after the fact as decent breakthrough information trails by at least a week at a time and several states aren’t providing breakthrough specific information. Since states are the repository for who specifically has been vaccinated, it’s up to states to report that data to the CDC for them to compile. Nine states haven’t been sharing any related data to the CDC and two other states, including Florida, haven’t provided breakthrough specific info for hospitalizations and deaths. Recently, I’ve commonly been asked about hospitalizations and deaths and whether the rise in cases, especially in Florida, is being driven by asymptomatic carriers. Something that’s important to remember in that context is that no one wakes up feeling fine and decides plan “A” for the day is going to get a COVID-19 test. There’s a reason why people are getting tested and there’s a reason why so many are positive. That’s why whether you’re vaccinated or unvaccinated, it’s not the best idea to operate on assumptions right now. There are more questions than answers with peak levels of COVID-19 around us right now. We may need another breakthrough to break free of the Delta surge. In better news...
3. No news is good news when it comes to hurricane season. And we’ve entered the 2nd busiest month of the year with four fewer named storms than last year’s record setting run and a map with the best eleven words we can hope for during hurricane season. No new tropical cyclones are expected for the next five days. We might be dealing with peak pandemic conditions right now but thankfully we’re entering peak hurricane season well below peak levels.