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Florida COVID-19 Reality Check - August 24th, 2021
Bottom Line: We’re all ready for better news and to turn the corner on the summer surge of COVID-19 cases in Florida. Last week might just have been the turning point. Last week was the week which the University of Florida and Johns Hopkins researchers pegged as the potential peak of the pandemic. By the end of the week there was evidence that may have been the case. Florida entered this week averaging 20,134 new daily COVID-19 cases. That’s a decline over of 1,200 daily cases over a week ago. Lots of COVID still being spread? Yes. Progress, yep and we'll take it. And it’s now not just UF & Johns Hopkins projecting improvement from here.
During the summer surge I’ve cited the Mayo Clinic’s tracker and projection tool for the spread of COVID-19 cases in Florida as it’s been highly accurate. So, what happens here? Using the Mayo Clinic’s 14-day projections, the news is the best it’s been since the Delta variants hit the scene. They provide three different models. What they call the “lower bound” projection, or best-case scenario, the middle, or average projection and an upper bound, or worst-case scenario. I’ll work backwards from the worst-case to the best.
Under the worst-case projection from the Mayo Clinic, Florida’s cases would rise by 38% from where we are today reaching a level of 27,837. That’s a huge improvement over just a week ago. Speaking of improvement. The average projection has Florida seeing a 6% decrease in cases to around 18,908 daily cases over the next two weeks. The best-case scenario is much better news. Under that scenario, cases are expected to decline by 38% over the next two weeks leaving us with around 12,431 daily cases.
The takeaway is this. Even the worst-case projections have significantly improved, and the overall odds are that the pandemic peaked in Florida last week – just as UF & Johns Hopkins predicted heading into it. Fingers crossed that proves true and it’s all better news from here.