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Q&A Of The Day – Why Are Israel And Ireland Suffering So Many Breakthroughs? Part 2
Bottom Line: In analyzing the ever-rising breakthrough cases in Israel and Ireland we’ve seen that the countries almost exclusively bet on the Pfizer vaccine which has only 42% efficacy against COVID-19's variants. That’s naturally going to be a problem with a virus that’s 4 times more contagious than the traditional flu. And speaking of contagious... Arguably the biggest variable of all, potentially even more so than what vaccines have mostly been administrated is population density. Israel has one of the highest population densities in the world. 1022 people per square mile live in Israel. That’s a staggering high rate. Ireland’s rate stands at 147 people per square mile. By comparison in the United States, there are 87 people per square mile. For this reason alone, comparisons between what’s happening in those countries with the volume of breakthrough cases and the United States aren’t really applicable. There’s just simply that much more opportunity in those countries.
When you combine the high population density of a country like Israel with the fact that the near exclusive vaccine used is only 42% effective at prevention against COVID-19's variants, the high numbers of breakthroughs being reported out of those countries begin to make a lot of sense. You asked about the variances in hospitalizations as well. The first part of the answer ties into the sheer opportunity we just discussed based on population density. There have been 12,908 vaccinated Americans who’ve been hospitalized or died from COVID-19. So, it does happen here, it’s just rare. When you adjust for the increase in population density of those other countries, you’re that much more likely to reach those most susceptible. The second part of that answer is having 40% of those vaccinated in this country with a vaccine that has nearly twice the level of efficacy of the vaccines used in those countries. And the third part of this answer is the wildcard. Duration.
In July I brought you this information regarding the efficacy of the traditional seasonal flu vaccines:
- Efficacy declines starting at around 20 days
- Efficacy declined by half after 125 days
- No efficacy after 165 days
I suspect this is what’s coming into play right now and is especially problematic with a Pfizer vaccine that’s already not good at prevention against the variants. While we’re waiting for better info on efficacy duration, which is at the root of the current booster debate, Dr. Robert Malone, one of three scientists responsible for the invention of the mRNA vaccine method (the method used for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines), has become a huge Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine skeptic and has stated that in his studies the efficacy of Pfizer is likely done at about six months. Consistent with the traditional flu vaccine. Increasingly this looks likely to be the case based on breakthrough cases in countries almost exclusively vaccinated with it. It also explains why the booster push in this country has centered squarely on the Pfizer vaccine. Don’t you find it odd that there wasn’t any initial concern about the Moderna vaccine with 40% of Americans having been vaccinated with that one? So, there you go. Lots of facts which explain what’s different in Ireland and Israel with a heads up for the rest of us.